Historically, tornadoes have been more likely to strike in the Midwestern area nicknamed "Tornado Alley," but experts are now saying that a different region is seeing the most occurrences of the deadly storm.
The traditional "Tornado Alley" area encompasses parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. In recent years, researchers noticed that states in the Great Plains were seeing fewer tornadoes than those in the Southeastern United States.
Victor Gensini, an associate professor at Northern Illinois University who wrote about the territory shift in 2018, said that the Alley's changing borders could bring "deadly consequences."
“The number one thing is that we have greater population density in the Mid-South,” he told NBC News. “There are basically more targets to hit on the dartboard.”
Gensini also noted that Southern areas typically have more trees, which will cause more damage when uprooted. There also tend to be more mobile homes in the South, which are the most vulnerable to tornado damage.
“Half of all tornado fatalities happen in mobile homes,” he continued. “If you’re living in a mobile home during a tornado warning, it’s already too late. That’s a major vulnerability.”
The frequency of tornadoes is also expected to increase, as the first three weeks of 2023 have exceeded the amount seen by this time in previous years. Gensini added that “we’re well above average in terms of the number of tornadoes that we would expect for the month of January."
Though the spontaneity of tornadoes makes them harder to study than other extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, research suggests climate change and rising temperatures are a likely factor in their occurrences, as heat produces more storms.
As January is the coldest point in the year, Gensini expects tornadoes to increase in the Spring months, which are already known for frequent rainfall and storms.
“It’s pretty rare to see an active January and February that all of a sudden goes dull in April and May,” he said. “When you look at tornado statistics, if it starts early in January and February, it’ll typically just keep going.”
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