More than a fifth of the world’s population will be at risk by the end of the century as global temperatures continue to rise, according to new data.
Published Monday in the Nature Sustainability journal, the study found that by 2100, over 2 billion people could live in areas average annual temperatures warmer than 84 degrees Fahrenheit (29C).
Factoring in carbon emission rates, the report estimates that global temperatures will rise by 4.9F (2.7C) in the next century. Even if the world limited temperature increases to 1.5C globally, the goal set by the 2015 Paris Climate Accords, 4.4 percent of the world population will still live in dangerously hot areas.
“Our study highlights the phenomenal human cost of failing to tackle the climate emergency,” Tim Lenton, the lead author and the director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, said in a statement. “For every 0.1C of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat. This reveals both the scale of the problem and the importance of decisive action to reduce carbon emissions."
India and Nigeria are home to the largest populations who could be at risk if global temperatures rise 4.9F, with a collective total of 941.1 million, 617.7 million of whom reside in India alone. The other nations most at-risk include Indonesia, the Philippines, and Pakistan.
As many studies proceeding it tended to focus on the economic impact of global warming, the report emphasized the need to study climate change's impact on human life.
"What is the human cost of climate change and who bears it?" it reads. "Existing estimates tend to be expressed in monetary terms, tend to recognize impacts on the rich more than those on the poor (because the rich have more money to lose), and tend to value those living now over those living in the future (because future damages are subject to economic discounting)."
It continues: "From an equity standpoint, this is unethical — when life or health are at stake, all people should be considered equal, whether rich or poor, alive, or yet to be born."
